A Further Assessment of 'Circle Theory' for Geographic Psychological Profiling

Abstract

The Circle theory of environmental range (Canter & Larkin, 1993) has demonstrated utility for the analysis of the spatial distribution of serial rape and arson offences, but the theory's applicability to the crime of multiple burglary is more equivocal. The present study analysed the spatial distribution of 58 multiple burglary cases that had occurred in four Australian rural towns. The marauder pattern of offence that had been found to accommodate most cases of serial rape and arson was no more likely than a commuter pattern to characterise multiple burglaries. Further, among those cases that showed a marauder pattern the circle theory provided only a relatively vague indication of the location of the offender's home base. No correlates of offence pattern were identified. The utility of the circle theory for geographic psychological profiling in cases of multiple burglary therefore remains to be demonstrated. The validity of the theory in this context also was queried. Directional vector analyses of the data suggested that multiple burglaries tend to lie in a narrow corridor relative to the offender's home base, whereas an assumption of the circle theory implies that these vectors will radiate in every direction from the home base. Crime investigators therefore should be discriminating in their application of the circle theory to an actual case of serial crime.