Developing a modeling approach to probability using computer-based simulations

Abstract

This research study investigates how middle school students use probability to model random behaviour in real-world contexts and the connections that they build among fundamental probabilistic concepts when they engage in exploring computer-based simulations that treat probability as a modelling tool. This article also discusses how students use the modelling approach to probability to draw basic inferences about data from examination of distributions. The results suggest that the way students express the relationship between signal and noise is of importance while building models from the observation of a real situation. This relationship seems to have a particular importance in students' abilities to build comprehensive models that link observed data with modelling distributions.