Risk Analysis in the Appraisal of the Ord River Irrigation Area, Western Australia

Title
Risk Analysis in the Appraisal of the Ord River Irrigation Area, Western Australia
Publication Date
1985
Author(s)
Gonzales, Clemen Malig
Milne, K
Type of document
Thesis Masters Research
Language
en
Entity Type
Publication
UNE publication id
une:11694
Abstract
The economic history of the Ord River Irrigation Area is chequered with controversy. A sugar cane growing and milling industry is the latest proposal for exploitation of the existing infrastructure. The economic worth of such a new investment is explored in this study. Two major methods are used, the first being a traditional deterministic appraisal of the project using conventional benefit-cost analysis. There are, however, many uncertainties inherent in the new project and these are accounted for in the second method of appraisal used herein, namely a stochastic analysis of benefits and costs accomplished with the aid of a digital simulation model of the project. The project appears rather uneconomic according to both methods, given the present outlook for continued low and unstable export sugar prices.
Link

Files:

NameSizeformatDescriptionLink