Alternative Future Scenarios for Marine Ecosystems: Technical Report

Abstract

In this report a set of four contrasting AFMEC (Alternative Future Scenarios for Marine Ecosystems) 'futures' are developed, detailing how marine ecosystems might look and how activities in the marine environment might develop over the next 20-30 years given assumptions about climate change and socio-political development. In elaborating these four 'futures', this report draws on earlier scenario exercises. It aims to complement work carried out by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), the Office of Science and Technology (OST) and the UK Environment Agency. The scenario framework segments the future 'possibility space' into four quadrants following other work on scenario development. Here scenarios are defined by a 'societal values' axis (ranging from consumerism to community) and a 'governance' axis (ranging from autonomy to interdependence). The four scenarios are: World Markets, Fortress Britain, Local Stewardship and Global Commons.