Chapter 9 Coastal Protection Scenario Byron Bay Beach Nothing endures but change Heraclitus ~ 270 ~ CHAPTER 9 COASTAL PROTECTION SCENARIO The urban shift scenario provided a high level of protection for coastal vegetation and resources while providing a relativity balanced solution to exponential urban growth in the far north east section of the region. The coastal protection scenario further develops the strategy of shifting the population growth further inland and strengthened the reallocation of new urban development from the Far North Coast into the surrounding zones. As in the agricultural and environmental priority scenario (Chapter 8), two variations of this scenario are provided. The first model followed the past trend „business as usual‟ urban growth of the minimal constraints scenario (Chapter 5). The second variation utilised the constraints of the agricultural and environmental protection scenario (Chapter 8). 9.1 POPULATION The population was calculated by using the same trends and regional population as previous scenarios. However in this scenario design the population increase for zones 3 to 6 were summed and then evenly divided between these four zones (Table 9.1). ~ 271 ~ TABLE 9.1: POPULATION CALCULATIONS FOR COASTAL PROTECTION SCENARIOS Estimated Regional Population Change in population Population change for zones 1+2 Difference (Region – Zones 1+2) To be added to each of Zones 3-6 (Difference /4) 403839 139381 4152 135229 33807 559911 295453 4762 290691 72673 727657 463199 6222 456977 114244 955497 691039 7761 683278 170819 This method significantly increased population growth in the central inland zones (zones 3 and 5) along the Summerland Highway. Furthermore, population was also shifted south, increasing urban settlement in the south coastal zone (zone 6). Zones 1 and 2 which had only low levels of projected growth were maintained at the same rate as in previous scenarios. Population figures and the allocation of new urban development cells are presented in Table 9.2 ~ 272 ~ TABLE 9.2: POPULATION AND URBAN CELL ALLOCATION FOR COASTAL PROTECTION SCENARIOS Zone Current (2004) Population 403839 Number of Urban Cells Number of People Number of Cells / Person Estimated Population Estimated Cells / Person Estimated Cells Required Number of Cells to be added 1 3818 5705 0.67 6186 1.36 8387 4569 2 20783 19677 1.06 23348 1.63 37973 17190 3 36325 25742 1.41 59549 2.40 142978 106653 4 149438 144387 1.03 178194 1.79 318479 169041 5 45071 46833 0.96 80640 1.75 141463 96392 6 35765 22114 1.62 55921 2.70 151133 115368 Sum 264458 403839 800412 509212 Zone Current (2004) Population 558911 Number of Urban Cells Number of People Number of Cells / Person Estimated Population Estimated Cells / Person Estimated Cells Required Number of Cells to be added 1 3818 5705 0.67 6199 1.36 8404 4586 2 20783 19677 1.06 23945 1.63 38945 18162 3 36325 25742 1.41 98165 2.40 235693 199368 4 149438 144387 1.03 216810 1.79 387495 238057 5 45071 46833 0.96 119256 1.75 209203 164132 6 35765 22114 1.62 94537 2.70 255495 219730 Sum 264458 558911 1135235 844035 Zone Current (2004) Population 727657 Number of Urban Cells Number of People Number of Cells / Person Estimated Population Estimated Cells / Person Estimated Cells Required Number of Cells to be added 1 3818 5705 0.67 6288 1.36 8524 4706 2 20783 19677 1.06 25316 1.63 41174 20391 3 36325 25742 1.41 139986 2.40 336107 299782 4 149438 144387 1.03 258631 1.79 462241 312803 5 45071 46833 0.96 161077 1.75 282569 237498 6 35765 22114 1.62 136358 2.70 368523 332758 Sum 264458 727657 1499137 1207937 Zone Current (2004) Population 955497 Number of Urban Cells Number of People Number of Cells / Person Estimated Population Estimated Cells / Person Estimated Cells Required Number of Cells to be added 1 3818 5705 0.67 6378 1.36 8646 4828 2 20783 19677 1.06 26765 1.63 43531 22748 3 36325 25742 1.41 196561 2.40 471945 435620 4 149438 144387 1.03 315206 1.79 563355 413917 5 45071 46833 0.96 217652 1.75 381816 336745 6 35765 22114 1.62 192933 2.70 521424 485659 Sum 264458 955497 1990716 1699516 ~ 273 ~ 9.2 COASTAL PROTECTION WITH MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS RESULTS The new urban development generated at the four population levels was combined with the 2004 LULC model and is shown with Far North Coast portions in Figures 9.1 to 9.8. In comparison to the minimal constraints scenario (Chapter 5) which has the same restrictions to potential development, the results of the placement of new urban areas in zone 4 appears to result in similar settlement patterns as the minimal constraints scenario at lower population levels. At the population level of 955497, the coastal protection scenario is similar to patterns in the minimal constraints scenario between population levels of 403839 and 533628. This probably occurred because of the shared constraints and the coastal protection scenario (population 955497) placement of 413917 cells into this zone when the two minimal constraints scenarios placed 291211 and 533628 cells respectively, in the same area. However southern and central inland areas do not follow the minimal constraints trend. The increased population in zone 5 caused the spatial extent of Lismore and surrounding towns to more than double in area and created a number of “satellite” urban settlement areas in the southern parts of this zone. In the southern parts of the region a large portion of the beach-side coastal area is contained within the NSW National Parks estate and ~ 274 ~ therefore urban development occurred in the area between Yamba and Maclean. With this population shift and lack of other constraints, the town of Maclean would become a major population centre and spatially larger than the 2004 size of Ballina or Lismore. Inland from Maclean, large areas of the pasture and cropland around Grafton were converted to urban areas. Together with outlying areas this could have the effect of making Grafton the largest city within the region. The spatial impact of the changes affected by this scenario is summarised in Table 9.3. ~ 275 ~ FIGURE 9.1: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS POPULATION 403839. ~ 276 ~ FIGURE 9.2: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS POPULATION 403839, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION ~ 277 ~ FIGURE 9.3: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS POPULATION 558911 ~ 278 ~ FIGURE 9.4: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS POPULATION 558911, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION ~ 279 ~ FIGURE 9.5: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS POPULATION 727657 ~ 280 ~ FIGURE 9.6: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS POPULATION 727657, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION ~ 281 ~ FIGURE 9.7: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS POPULATION 955497 ~ 282 ~ FIGURE 9.8: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS POPULATION 955497, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION ~ 283 ~ 9.2.1 CHANGE TABLES The effects of the changes created in this scenario are shown in Table 9.3 TABLE 9.3: LAND USE CHANGE FOR COASTAL PROTECTION WITH MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS SCENARIOS Land Use / Population 2004 Population 403839 Population 558911 Population 727657 Population 955497 Total ha Total ha Change (ha) % Change Total ha Change (ha) % Change Total ha Change (ha) % Change Total ha Change (ha) % Change Coastal Complex 67563 64490 -3073 -4.55% 63074 -4489 -6.64% 61290 -6272 -9.28% 59221 -8341 -12.35% Forests 1205414 1198707 -6707 -0.56% 1193403 -12011 -1.00% 1185574 -19840 -1.65% 1175539 -29876 -2.48% Pasture/ Crops 713725 695394 -18332 -2.57% 685368 -28358 -3.97% 674170 -39555 -5.54% 660162 -535628 -7.50% Orchards 8730 8549 -180 -2.06% 8392 -338 -3.87% 8225 -505 -5.78% 8016 -714 -8.17% Sugar Cane 56069 52820 -3248 -5.79% 50579 -5489 -9.79% 47038 -9030 -16.11% 42645 -13424 -23.94% Urban 20148 51688 31541 256.55 % 70832 50684 351.56 % 95350 75202 473.26 % 126065 105917 625.70% ~ 284 ~ In the same manner as the urban shift scenario of Chapter 8, the reallocation of new urban development into zones with lower population densities increased the overall urban area for the region. At the population 955497 level, the extent of the urban area was more than 625% larger than the 2004 levels. Predominately due to the large amount of growth around Grafton and Lismore more than half a million hectares of pasture and crop was converted to urban area. This is only slightly less than the change for this class in the environmental constraints scenario. With a large proportional change of land used for sugar cane, 23.94% became urbanised, which is similar to the minimal constraints scenario. Almost 30000 hectares of forest was converted to urban use and another 8341 hectares of coastal native vegetation became urbanised. The breakdown by vegetation class for this change is presented in Table 9.4. ~ 285 ~ TABLE 9.4: LAND USE CHANGE BY VEGETATION TYPE FOR COASTAL PROTECTION MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS SCENARIOS Population 403839 Population 558911 Population 727657 Population 955497 ECOSYSTEM STATUS_A LULC 2004 Total (ha) Change (ha) % Change Total (ha) Change (ha) % Change Total (ha) Change (ha) % Change Total (ha) Change (ha) % Change unclassified 151111 146569 -4542 -3.01% 144534 -6577 -4.35% 142202 -8909 -5.90% 139408 -11703 -7.74% Baileys Stringybark 31076 30720 -357 -1.15% 30323 -753 -2.42% 29767 -1310 -4.21% 29104 -1972 -6.35% Banksia Rare 1336 1286 -50 -3.77% 1259 -78 -5.80% 1219 -118 -8.80% 1166 -170 -12.75% Casuarina Woodland Rare 21 18 -3 -16.32% 16 -5 -24.93% 15 -6 -30.27% 12 -9 -43.92% Central Mid Elevation Sydney Blue Gum 3278 3277 -1 -0.03% 3277 -1 -0.03% 3275 -3 -0.10% 3274 -4 -0.11% Clarence Lowland Needlebark Stringybark 10322 10224 -98 -0.95% 10105 -217 -2.10% 9907 -415 -4.02% 9692 -630 -6.11% Lowlands Grey Box Vulnerable 14455 14371 -84 -0.58% 14200 -254 -1.76% 13956 -498 -3.45% 13590 -865 -5.98% Coast Cypress Pine Rare 67 63 -3 -4.97% 63 -3 -4.97% 63 -4 -5.25% 63 -4 -5.82% Coast Range Bloodwood- Mahogany 5177 5142 -35 -0.67% 5119 -58 -1.12% 5059 -118 -2.28% 4978 -199 -3.84% Clarence Lowlands Spotted Gum 128339 127722 -617 -0.48% 127022 -1317 -1.03% 125986 -2353 -1.83% 124581 -3758 -2.93% Coast Range Spotted Gum- Blackbutt Rare 625 624 -2 -0.30% 621 -4 -0.66% 612 -14 -2.21% 602 -24 -3.81% Coastal Flooded Gum 8039 8039 0 0.00% 8039 0 0.00% 8037 -1 -0.02% 8035 -4 -0.05% Coastal Sands Blackbutt 2821 2799 -22 -0.77% 2791 -30 -1.06% 2783 -38 -1.34% 2771 -50 -1.76% Dry Foothills Blackbutt- Turpentine 2704 2687 -17 -0.61% 2673 -31 -1.16% 2655 -49 -1.82% 2618 -86 -3.17% Dry Foothills Spotted Gum 73800 73795 -5 -0.01% 73787 -13 -0.02% 73773 -27 -0.04% 73741 -59 -0.08% Dry Grassy Blackbutt- Tallowwood 5353 5297 -56 -1.04% 5242 -111 -2.07% 5146 -207 -3.86% 5043 -310 -5.78% Dry Grassy Tallowwood-Grey Gum 2167 2125 -42 -1.93% 2088 -79 -3.67% 2008 -159 -7.33% 1933 -234 -10.81% Dry Heathy Blackbutt- 42039 41572 -467 -1.11% 41112 -927 -2.21% 40404 -1635 -3.89% 39576 -2463 -5.86% ~ 286 ~ Bloodwood Dry Heathy Sandstone Blackbutt 16634 16534 -100 -0.60% 16437 -197 -1.18% 16317 -317 -1.91% 16169 -465 -2.80% Dry open Redgum-Broad Leaved Apple 1129 1129 0 0.00% 1129 0 0.00% 1128 -2 -0.14% 1125 -5 -0.41% Dunns White Gum Rare 291 291 0 0.00% 289 -2 -0.52% 281 -10 -3.40% 279 -11 -3.93% Eastern Red Gums Vulnerable 1774 1774 0 0.00% 1774 0 0.00% 1774 0 0.00% 1774 0 0.00% Escarpment Redgum 15211 15207 -4 -0.02% 15202 -9 -0.06% 15194 -16 -0.11% 15180 -30 -0.20% Escarpment Scribbly Gum- Apple 3583 3582 -2 -0.05% 3581 -3 -0.08% 3580 -3 -0.09% 3577 -7 -0.18% Wet Bangalow-Brushbox Vulnerable 8312 8285 -27 -0.33% 8267 -45 -0.54% 8249 -63 -0.76% 8212 -99 -1.20% Foothill Grey Gum-Ironbark- Spotted Gum 39837 39640 -197 -0.49% 39425 -412 -1.03% 39034 -803 -2.02% 38628 -1208 -3.03% Foothills Grey Gum-Spotted Gum 5947 5904 -44 -0.73% 5861 -87 -1.46% 5756 -192 -3.23% 5659 -288 -4.84% Gorge Grey Gum 697 695 -2 -0.34% 694 -3 -0.45% 691 -6 -0.83% 682 -15 -2.20% Gorge Ironbark-Grey Gum 22685 22684 -1 0.00% 22682 -3 -0.01% 22675 -10 -0.05% 22668 -17 -0.07% Heath Vulnerable 8138 8077 -62 -0.76% 8039 -99 -1.22% 7983 -156 -1.91% 7920 -218 -2.68% Heathy Scribbly Gum 7235 7174 -61 -0.84% 7114 -120 -1.66% 7012 -223 -3.08% 6898 -336 -4.65% Herbfield and Fjaeldmark Rare 25 24 -1 -3.49% 23 -2 -7.23% 22 -3 -12.22% 21 -4 -17.21% High Elevation Open Spotted Gum 42550 42519 -31 -0.07% 42492 -59 -0.14% 42450 -101 -0.24% 42392 -159 -0.37% Ironbark 5467 5443 -24 -0.44% 5409 -58 -1.05% 5368 -99 -1.81% 5312 -155 -2.83% Low Relief Coastal Blackbutt Rare 310 310 0 0.00% 310 0 0.00% 310 0 0.00% 310 0 0.00% Lowland Red Gum 43876 43458 -418 -0.95% 43063 -813 -1.85% 42381 -1496 -3.41% 41417 -2459 -5.61% Lowlands Scribbly Gum Vulnerable 3204 3171 -33 -1.01% 3155 -48 -1.51% 3116 -87 -2.73% 3074 -129 -4.03% Lowlands Spotted Gum-Box 15578 15547 -30 -0.19% 15489 -88 -0.57% 15416 -162 -1.04% 15301 -276 -1.77% Coastal Mallee Vulnerable 1240 1230 -11 -0.86% 1224 -16 -1.29% 1207 -34 -2.73% 1188 -53 -4.25% Mangrove Rare 395 385 -10 -2.61% 380 -15 -3.90% 372 -23 -5.90% 357 -38 -9.63% ~ 287 ~ Moist Foothills Spotted Gum 30780 30771 -9 -0.03% 30755 -25 -0.08% 30715 -65 -0.21% 30685 -95 -0.31% Northern Moist Blackbutt 8700 8689 -11 -0.13% 8678 -22 -0.25% 8655 -45 -0.51% 8624 -76 -0.87% Natural Grassland Rare 270 268 -2 -0.65% 266 -4 -1.41% 264 -6 -2.11% 262 -8 -3.10% Needlebark Stringybark-Large Fruited Blackbutt 9547 9446 -102 -1.06% 9364 -183 -1.92% 9194 -353 -3.70% 8990 -557 -5.84% New England Stringybark- Blakelys Red Gum 1067 1063 -4 -0.33% 1058 -9 -0.83% 1039 -27 -2.55% 1012 -55 -5.13% Northern Open Grassy Blackbutt 18876 18730 -145 -0.77% 18583 -293 -1.55% 18325 -550 -2.92% 17972 -904 -4.79% Northern Ranges Dry Tallowwood 19608 19606 -2 -0.01% 19603 -5 -0.03% 19599 -9 -0.05% 19589 -20 -0.10% Northern Wet Brushbox 10532 10532 0 0.00% 10531 -1 -0.01% 10531 -1 -0.01% 10531 -1 -0.01% Northern Wet Tallowwood- Blue Gum 14647 14646 0 0.00% 14646 -1 -0.01% 14644 -2 -0.01% 14643 -3 -0.02% Open Coastal Brushbox 3440 3409 -31 -0.91% 3386 -55 -1.58% 3350 -91 -2.64% 3307 -133 -3.87% Open Shrubby Brushbox- Tallowwood 9663 9662 -1 -0.01% 9662 -1 -0.01% 9662 -1 -0.01% 9662 -1 -0.01% Paperbark Vulnerable 22405 22073 -332 -1.48% 21819 -586 -2.61% 21402 -1002 -4.47% 20868 -1536 -6.86% Red Bloodwood Rare 207 205 -2 -1.06% 199 -8 -4.07% 192 -15 -7.39% 186 -22 -10.43% Red Mahogany 1251 1248 -2 -0.19% 1247 -4 -0.30% 1244 -7 -0.57% 1242 -8 -0.66% Richmond Range Spotted Gum 16415 16409 -6 -0.04% 16406 -9 -0.05% 16399 -16 -0.10% 16381 -34 -0.21% Richmond Range Spotted Gum-Box 17197 17196 -1 -0.01% 17193 -4 -0.02% 17191 -6 -0.03% 17191 -6 -0.03% River Oak Vulnerable 824 821 -3 -0.40% 817 -7 -0.85% 813 -11 -1.29% 807 -17 -2.09% Rough-barked Apples Vulnerable 1396 1396 -1 -0.04% 1393 -4 -0.26% 1388 -8 -0.58% 1385 -11 -0.79% Saltbush Rare 9 8 -2 -16.56% 7 -2 -25.17% 6 -3 -33.11% 6 -3 -33.11% Sandstone Spotted Gum- Blackbutt 3870 3856 -14 -0.36% 3834 -36 -0.92% 3794 -76 -1.95% 3744 -125 -3.24% Sherwood Needlebark 8249 8143 -106 -1.29% 8027 -222 -2.69% 7827 -422 -5.11% 7554 -695 -8.42% ~ 288 ~ Stringybark South Coast Tallowwood-Blue Gum 2569 2567 -2 -0.08% 2564 -5 -0.19% 2558 -11 -0.43% 2543 -26 -1.00% Stringybark-Apple 5044 5041 -3 -0.06% 5039 -5 -0.11% 5036 -8 -0.16% 5028 -16 -0.32% Swamp Endangered 11569 11269 -300 -2.59% 11096 -473 -4.09% 10917 -652 -5.64% 10646 -923 -7.98% Swamp Mahogany Rare 351 340 -11 -3.12% 331 -20 -5.67% 320 -31 -8.75% 305 -46 -12.99% Swamp Oak Rare 1946 1882 -64 -3.28% 1830 -116 -5.96% 1754 -192 -9.88% 1670 -277 -14.21% Sydney Peppermint- Stringybark Rare 205 205 0 0.00% 205 0 0.00% 205 0 0.00% 205 0 0.00% Tallowwood 3563 3561 -2 -0.05% 3561 -2 -0.05% 3559 -4 -0.11% 3558 -5 -0.14% Turpentine 2470 2446 -24 -0.97% 2432 -38 -1.55% 2414 -56 -2.25% 2390 -80 -3.23% Very Wet New England Blackbutt-Tallowwood 434 434 0 -0.03% 434 0 -0.03% 434 0 -0.03% 434 -1 -0.14% Wattle 783 770 -13 -1.68% 762 -21 -2.67% 753 -30 -3.81% 734 -49 -6.29% Wet Bloodwood-Tallowwood 25677 25656 -21 -0.08% 25639 -37 -0.15% 25617 -59 -0.23% 25570 -107 -0.42% Wet Coastal Tallowwood- Brushbox 1526 1501 -25 -1.64% 1483 -43 -2.81% 1449 -77 -5.07% 1407 -119 -7.81% Wet Flooded Gum- Tallowwood 5399 5359 -40 -0.74% 5326 -73 -1.35% 5276 -123 -2.27% 5218 -181 -3.35% Wet Foothills Blackbutt- Turpentine 1014 1014 0 0.00% 1014 0 -0.01% 1012 -3 -0.25% 1008 -7 -0.65% Forestry Plantations 10325 10292 -32 -0.31% 10248 -77 -0.74% 10160 -164 -1.59% 10034 -291 -2.82% Introduced Scrub 989 989 0 0.00% 988 -1 -0.11% 985 -4 -0.39% 979 -10 -1.00% Rainforest Endangered 111641 111513 -128 -0.11% 111424 -217 -0.19% 111306 -335 -0.30% 111132 -509 -0.46% Scrub Vulnerable 4202 4144 -58 -1.38% 4124 -78 -1.85% 4103 -100 -2.37% 4065 -137 -3.27% Cleared-Partially Cleared 3118 3104 -14 -0.45% 3099 -19 -0.62% 3093 -25 -0.80% 3085 -33 -1.06% Camphor Laurel 6159 6015 -144 -2.34% 5938 -221 -3.58% 5855 -304 -4.93% 5762 -397 -6.45% ~ 289 ~ Two vegetation classes unaffected in previous scenarios, the rare Dunn‟s white gum and dry open redgum-broad leaved apple, were impacted by the land use changes of the scenario. Overall, the Clarence lowlands spotted gum was most heavily impacted in terms of area, with 3757 hectares being urbanised. Other vegetation classes losing considerable areas included dry heathy blackbutt (2462 hectares), lowland red gum (2459 hectares) and Bailey‟s stringybark (1972 hectares). Vegetation that had a proportionally large amount of area converted to urban use in this scenario followed a similar pattern to the minimal constraints scenario. Casuarina woodlands lost 43.92% of the 2004 area and saltbush areas were reduced by 33.11%. The extent of herbfield and fjaeldmark was reduced by 17.21% and swamp oak by 14.21%. These vegetation types were collectively part of the 5114 hectares of rare, vulnerable or endangered classified areas lost to urban use in this coastal protection (minimal constraints) scenario. The second scenario variation of coastal protection, with protection of agricultural lands and environmental constraints, is examined next. ~ 290 ~ 9.3 COASTAL PROTECTION WITH AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION RESULTS The coastal protection with agricultural and environmental constraints to urban development follows a similar model to that of the urban shift scenarios presented in Chapter 8. Urban development patterns at the low population levels, generated by this scenario and merged with the 2006 land use are shown (with Far North Coast portion) in Figures 9.9 to 9.16. New areas for urban development followed a similar structure and placement as in the previous scenario variation (9.2) although to a lesser extent due to the reduced population. However priority agricultural and environmental areas were protected. This meant for example, that the sugar cane fields at both the northern and southern parts of the zone were protected from urban growth, as well as a 1-2km wide corridor of native vegetation along the coastline (Figures 9.15, 9.16). The population centres within zone 4 only grew marginally and the largest area of urban growth was in the area between Murwillumbah and Byron Bay. Urban development in zone 5 was more concentrated around Lismore and the towns to the north than the minimal constraints variation of this scenario although a large number of patches of “satellite” urbanisation are present in both variations in the southern part of this zone. As in the urban shift scenario the effect of the constraints upon the pattern and shape of new development areas is visually apparent (Figures 9.15, 9.16). ~ 291 ~ In the southern parts of the region these constraints shifted new development from the sugar cane area between Yamba and Maclean to ribbon development along the Pacific Highway. This development formed a line of urban sprawl approximately 50 kilometres long and 3 kilometres wide. Similar to the minimal constraints variation, new urban growth in zone 3 centered on the agricultural area around Grafton, although constraints to development pushed this growth to the south and west of the city (Figure 9.15, 9.16). The spatial impact of the changes effected by this scenario is summarised in Table 9.5. ~ 292 ~ FIGURE 9.9: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH POPULATION 403839 ~ 293 ~ FIGURE 9.10: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH POPULATION 403839, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION ~ 294 ~ FIGURE 9.11: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH POPULATION 558911 ~ 295 ~ FIGURE 9.12: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH POPULATION 558911, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION ~ 296 ~ FIGURE 9.13: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH POPULATION 727657 ~ 297 ~ FIGURE 9.14: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH POPULATION 727657, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION ~ 298 ~ FIGURE 9.15: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH POPULATION 955497 ~ 299 ~ FIGURE 9.16: COASTAL PROTECTION WITH POPULATION 955497, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION ~ 300 ~ 9.3.1 CHANGE TABLES TABLE 9.5 LAND USE CHANGE BY CLASS FOR COASTAL PROTECTION AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION SCENARIOS Land Use / Population 2004 Population 403839 Population 558911 Population 727657 Population 955497 Total ha Total ha Change (ha) % Change Total ha Change (ha) % Change Total ha Change (ha) % Change Total ha Change (ha) % Change Coastal Complex 67563 65537 -2026 -3.00% 64686 -2876 -4.26% 63880 -3683 -5.45% 63017 -4546 -6.73% Forests 1205414 1193041 -12374 -1.03% 1185509 -19905 -1.65% 1174218 -31196 -2.59% 1160382 -45033 -3.74% Pasture/ Crops 713725 685043 -28682 -4.02% 674768 -38957 -5.46% 662917 -50808 -7.12% 647547 -66179 -9.27% Orchards 8730 21120 12390 141.94 % 21120 12390 141.94 % 21120 12390 141.94% 21120 12390 141.94% Sugar Cane 56069 55295 -773 -1.38% 54861 -1208 -2.15% 54319 -1750 -3.12% 53693 -2376 -4.24% Urban 20148 51688 31541 256.55 % 70832 50684 351.56 % 95350 75202 473.26% 126065 105917 625.70% ~ 301 ~ Land use changes in this scenario had a similar distribution across land use classes as the urban shift scenarios of Chapter 8 (Table 9.5). The increased population in lower density areas expanded the overall urban area within the region and reached 105917 hectares at the highest population level (62.5% of 2004 urban extent). The constraints combined with relocation of urban development reduced the impact on sugar cane with 4.24% becoming urbanised. This was the smallest area lost of this class to urban development conversion for all scenarios. Similarly 6.73% (4545 hectares) of the coastal complex class was lost to urban development; the least area lost to urban settlement in all scenarios, except for the controlled density scenario. However, 9.27% of the extent of pasture and crops was converted to urban development which was the highest level for all scenarios and was primarily due to the population shift and increased development in the southern parts of the region. The amount of forests was reduced by 3.74% which is also a large figure in comparison to other scenarios. The breakdown of change by vegetation ecosystem classes, under this scenario is presented in Table 9.6. ~ 302 ~ TABLE 9.5: LAND USE CHANGE BY VEGETATION TYPE FOR COASTAL PROTECTION AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION SCENARIOS Population 403839 Population 558911 Population 727657 Population 955497 ECOSYSTEM STATUS_A LULC 2004 Total (ha) Change (ha) % Change Total (ha) Change (ha) % Change Total (ha) Change (ha) % Change Total (ha) Change (ha) % Change unclassified 1511109 1554267 -43158 -2.86% 1576922 -65813 -4.36% 1603376 -92267 -6.11% 1636983 -125874 -8.33% Baileys Stringybark - 310763 316426 -5663 -1.82% 322030 -11267 -3.63% 330430 -19667 -6.33% 339978 -29214 -9.40% Banksia Rare 13363 14191 -829 -6.20% 14664 -1301 -9.74% 14906 -1543 -11.55% 15350 -1988 -14.87% Casuarina Woodland Rare 211 213 -2 -0.89% 213 -2 -0.89% 213 -2 -0.89% 213 -2 -0.89% Central Mid Elevation Sydney Blue Gum - 32782 32792 -10 -0.03% 32793 -11 -0.03% 32793 -11 -0.03% 32793 -11 -0.03% Clarence Lowland Needlebark Stringybark - 103218 105091 -1874 -1.82% 106547 -3329 -3.23% 109686 -6468 -6.27% 112955 -9738 -9.43% Lowlands Grey Box Vulnerable 144545 145861 -1316 -0.91% 148430 -3885 -2.69% 151569 -7024 -4.86% 155548 -11003 -7.61% Coast Cypress Pine Rare 666 704 -38 -5.63% 704 -38 -5.63% 711 -44 -6.66% 721 -55 -8.26% Coast Range Bloodwood- Mahogany - 51770 52173 -403 -0.78% 52723 -953 -1.84% 53726 -1956 -3.78% 54693 -2923 -5.65% Clarence Lowlands Spotted Gum - 1283389 1292884 -9495 -0.74% 1303046 -19656 -1.53% 1318388 -34998 -2.73% 1337654 -54265 -4.23% Coast Range Spotted Gum- Blackbutt Rare 6254 6254 0 -0.00% 6293 -39 -0.62% 6403 -149 -2.39% 6511 -257 -4.11% Coastal Flooded Gum - 80385 80385 0 -0.00% 80403 -18 -0.02% 80409 -24 -0.03% 80481 -96 -0.12% Coastal Sands Blackbutt - 28208 28419 -212 -0.75% 28468 -260 -0.92% 28516 -309 -1.09% 28584 -377 -1.34% Dry Foothills Blackbutt- Turpentine - 27039 27264 -226 -0.83% 27509 -471 -1.74% 28107 -1068 -3.95% 28539 -1501 -5.55% Dry Foothills Spotted Gum - 737998 738121 -123 -0.02% 738350 -352 -0.05% 738791 -793 -0.11% 739303 -1305 -0.18% Dry Grassy Blackbutt- Tallowwood - 53525 54301 -776 -1.45% 54872 -1347 -2.52% 56039 -2514 -4.70% 57011 -3486 -6.51% Dry Grassy Tallowwood-Grey Gum - 21672 22355 -683 -3.15% 22796 -1124 -5.19% 23882 -2210 -10.20% 24953 -3281 -15.14% ~ 303 ~ Dry Heathy Blackbutt- Bloodwood - 420389 427463 -7074 -1.68% 433865 -13476 -3.21% 443976 -23587 -5.61% 455309 -34920 -8.31% Dry Heathy Sandstone Blackbutt - 166340 167966 -1626 -0.98% 169318 -2978 -1.79% 171534 -5194 -3.12% 173438 -7098 -4.27% Dry open Redgum-Broad Leaved Apple - 11293 11293 0 0.00% 11326 -33 -0.29% 11329 -36 -0.32% 11349 -56 -0.50% Dunns White Gum Rare 2908 2908 0 0.00% 2908 0 0.00% 2908 0 0.00% 2908 0 0.00% Eastern Red Gums Vulnerable 17735 17738 -3 -0.01% 17754 -19 -0.11% 17824 -89 -0.50% 18014 -279 -1.58% Escarpment Redgum - 152105 152164 -59 -0.04% 152256 -151 -0.10% 152377 -272 -0.18% 152508 -403 -0.26% Escarpment Scribbly Gum- Apple - 35833 35864 -31 -0.09% 35879 -46 -0.13% 35906 -74 -0.21% 35984 -151 -0.42% Wet Bangalow-Brushbox Vulnerable 83117 83365 -248 -0.30% 83621 -504 -0.61% 84067 -950 -1.14% 84821 -1704 -2.05% Foothill Grey Gum-Ironbark- Spotted Gum - 398366 401949 -3583 -0.90% 404748 -6381 -1.60% 409170 -10804 -2.71% 414187 -15821 -3.97% Foothills Grey Gum-Spotted Gum - 59474 60118 -644 -1.08% 60934 -1459 -2.45% 62224 -2750 -4.62% 63476 -4001 -6.73% Gorge Ironbark-Grey Gum - 226850 226884 -34 -0.01% 226943 -93 -0.04% 226999 -149 --0.07% 227099 -249 -0.11% Heath Vulnerable 81383 82614 -1231 -1.51% 83191 -1808 -2.22% 84088 -2704 -3.32% 84465 -3082 -3.79% Heathy Scribbly Gum - 72345 73314 -969 -1.34% 74213 -1868 -2.58% 75709 -3364 -4.65% 77324 -4979 -6.88% Herbfield and Fjaeldmark Rare 251 251 0 0.00% 251 0 0.00% 251 0 0.00% 251 0 0.00% High Elevation Open Spotted Gum - 425504 425876 -373 -0.09% 426233 -729 -0.17% 426944 -1441 -0.34% 427941 -2437 -0.57% Ironbark - 54666 54978 -313 -0.57% 55336 -670 -1.23% 55714 -1048 -1.92% 56303 -1638 -3.00% Lowland Red Gum - 438761 443798 -5037 -1.15% 449226 -10466 -2.39% 457215 -18454 -4.21% 467912 -29151 -6.64% Lowlands Scribbly Gum Vulnerable 32035 32324 -289 -0.90% 32543 -508 -1.58% 32926 -891 -2.78% 33370 -1335 -4.17% Lowlands Spotted Gum-Box - 155776 156203 -427 -0.27% 156667 -891 -0.57% 157511 -1734 -1.11% 158769 -2993 -1.92% Coastal Mallee Vulnerable 12404 12516 -111 -0.90% 12558 -154 -1.24% 12595 -191 -1.54% 12630 -226 -1.82% Mangrove Rare 3954 3963 -9 -0.24% 3967 -13 -0.33% 3967 -13 -0.33% 3967 -13 -0.33% Moist Foothills Spotted Gum - 307799 307917 -118 -0.04% 308043 -244 -0.08% 308301 -502 -0.16% 308538 -738 -0.24% ~ 304 ~ Northern Moist Blackbutt - 86996 87138 -142 -0.16% 87303 -306 -0.35% 87630 -634 -0.73% 88148 -1151 -1.32% Natural Grassland Rare 2701 2703 -2 -0.07% 2704 -3 -0.12% 2708 -7 -0.25% 2940 -239 -8.86% Needlebark Stringybark-Large Fruited Blackbutt - 95474 97354 -1881 -1.97% 98946 -3473 -3.64% 102436 -6963 -7.29% 106235 -10761 -11.27% New England Stringybark- Blakelys Red Gum - 10666 10694 -29 -0.27% 10891 -226 -2.12% 11149 -483 -4.53% 11337 -671 -6.29% Northern Grassy Sydney Blue Gum Vulnerable 28564 28564 0 0.00% 28564 0 0.00% 28564 0 0.00% 28564 0 0.00% Northern Open Grassy Blackbutt - 188758 191155 -2398 -1.27% 193591 -4833 -2.56% 197419 -8662 -4.59% 202423 -13666 -7.24% Northern Ranges Dry Tallowwood - 196084 196144 -59 -0.03% 196195 -111 -0.06% 196327 -243 -0.12% 196523 -438 -0.22% Northern Wet Brushbox - 105321 105329 -8 -0.01% 105329 -8 -0.01% 105332 -11 -0.01% 105332 -11 -0.01% Northern Wet Tallowwood- Blue Gum - 146465 146473 -8 -0.01% 146493 -28 -0.02% 146515 -50 -0.03% 146536 -71 -0.05% Open Coastal Brushbox - 34403 34749 -347 -1.01% 35036 -634 -1.84% 35839 -1436 -4.17% 36542 -2139 -6.22% Open Shrubby Brushbox- Tallowwood - 96629 96636 -7 -0.01% 96636 -7 -0.01% 96645 -16 -0.02% 96667 -38 -0.04% Paperbark Vulnerable 224048 226093 -2045 -0.91% 228393 -4345 -1.94% 231013 -6965 -3.11% 234639 -10592 -4.73% Red Bloodwood Rare 2073 2073 0 -0.00% 2088 -16 -0.75% 2114 -41 -1.99% 2114 -41 -1.99% Red Mahogany - 12507 12530 -23 -0.18% 12531 -24 -0.19% 12591 -84 -0.67% 12621 -114 -0.91% Richmond Range Spotted Gum - 164150 164252 -102 -0.06% 164376 -226 -0.14% 164597 -447 -0.27% 164789 -639 -0.39% Richmond Range Spotted Gum-Box - 171969 172008 -39 -0.02% 172024 -55 -0.03% 172037 -68 -0.04% 172061 -92 -0.05% River Oak Vulnerable 8240 8269 -29 -0.36% 8280 -40 -0.49% 8344 -104 -1.26% 8437 -197 -2.39% Rough-barked Apples Vulnerable 13963 13999 -37 -0.26% 14065 -103 -0.73% 14106 -143 -1.03% 14198 -236 -1.69% Saltbush Rare 94 108 -13 - 13.91% 109 -15 - 15.89% 109 -15 -15.89% 109 -15 -15.89% Sandstone Spotted Gum- - 38696 38988 -292 -0.75% 39318 -623 -1.61% 39664 -968 -2.50% 40113 -1418 -3.66% ~ 305 ~ Blackbutt Sherwood Needlebark Stringybark - 82486 83684 -1199 -1.45% 85059 -2574 -3.12% 87958 -5472 -6.63% 92694 -10208 -12.38% South Coast Tallowwood-Blue Gum - 25689 25734 -44 -0.17% 25876 -186 -0.73% 26123 -433 -1.69% 26416 -727 -2.83% Stringybark-Apple - 50442 50473 -31 -0.06% 50509 -68 -0.13% 50575 -133 -0.26% 50666 -224 -0.44% Swamp Endangered 115692 117709 -2017 -1.74% 118806 -3114 -2.69% 119847 -4155 -3.59% 120778 -5086 -4.40% Swamp Mahogany Rare 3506 3516 -9 -0.27% 3516 -9 -0.27% 3516 -9 -0.27% 3516 -9 -0.27% Swamp Oak Rare 19461 19735 -274 -1.41% 19903 -442 -2.27% 20139 -679 -3.49% 20327 -866 -4.45% Sydney Peppermint- Stringybark Rare 2045 2045 0 0.00% 2045 0 0.00% 2045 0 0.00% 2045 0 0.00% Tallowwood - 35629 35648 -19 -0.05% 35648 -19 -0.05% 35689 -60 -0.17% 35698 -68 -0.19% Turpentine - 24700 25036 -336 -1.36% 25283 -583 -2.36% 25633 -933 -3.78% 26204 -1504 -6.09% Wattle - 7831 8007 -176 -2.24% 8138 -306 -3.91% 8362 -531 -6.78% 8560 -729 -9.31% Wet Bloodwood-Tallowwood - 256767 257186 -419 -0.16% 257647 -880 -0.34% 258401 -1634 -0.64% 259503 -2736 -1.07% Wet Coastal Tallowwood- Brushbox - 15263 15613 -351 -2.30% 15886 -623 -4.08% 16494 -1231 -8.07% 16807 -1544 -10.12% Wet Flooded Gum- Tallowwood - 53986 54594 -608 -1.13% 55075 -1089 -2.02% 55851 -1865 -3.45% 57091 -3106 -5.75% Wet Foothills Blackbutt- Turpentine - 10141 10141 0 0.00% 10164 -23 -0.22% 10209 -68 -0.67% 10263 -122 -1.20% Forestry Plantations 0 103246 103366 -119 -0.12% 103386 -140 -0.14% 103396 -149 -0.14% 103399 -153 -0.15% Improved Pasture and Cropland 0 5072 5084 -12 -0.23% 5084 -12 -0.23% 5084 -12 -0.23% 5084 -12 -0.23% Introduced Scrub 0 9891 9903 -12 -0.12% 9910 -19 -0.19% 9951 -60 -0.61% 9994 -103 -1.04% Rainforest Endangered 1116406 1117851 -1445 -0.13% 1118948 -2541 -0.23% 1120597 -4191 -0.38% 1123939 -7533 -0.67% Scrub Vulnerable 42023 42418 -396 -0.94% 42607 -584 -1.39% 42747 -724 -1.72% 42864 -841 -2.00% Cleared-Partially Cleared 0 31181 31215 -34 -0.11% 31244 -63 -0.20% 31289 -108 -0.35% 31378 -197 -0.63% Camphor Laurel 0 61588 63900 -2312 -3.75% 65546 -3958 -6.43% 67535 -5947 -9.66% 69797 -8209 -13.33% ~ 306 ~ The spatial shift in urban development caused the extent of the classified vulnerable eastern red gum class to be reduced by 1.58%. This class had not been impacted in previous scenarios. However, the Dunn‟s white gum which had been affected in the minimal constraints version of the coastal protection scenarios was not impacted in this scenario variation. Proportionally, approximately 15% of the saltbush, dry grass tallowwood and banksia classes became urbanised. The largest change in area was in the Clarence lowlands spotted gum (5426 hectares) and dry heathy blackwood-bloodwood (3492 hectares) classes. Bailey‟s stringybark and lowland red gum were also both reduced by approximately 2900 hectares. In comparison to other scenarios these represent large losses for any one vegetation class and mirror large impact on the forest class that occurred within this scenario variation. Overall, 4559 hectares of rare, vulnerable and endangered vegetation types were converted to urban, including 1100 hectares of lowland grey box and 1059 hectares of paperbark. ~ 307 ~ 9.4 SUMMARY These scenarios, and variations, show alternatives to the problem of balancing conflicting land uses by shifting population growth into other areas. By generating scenarios with differing constraints it was possible to represent a „business as usual‟ approach regarding restrictions to development and allow the singular concept of shifting the growth of future urban development to be visualised and areas impacted calculated. By applying the agricultural and environmental constraints of Chapter 8 this design approach was expanded to allow for the protection of both agricultural productivity and the region‟s environmental heritage.