Chapter 8 
Agricultural and Environmental Priority Scenario 
 
 
 
 
 
Sugar Cane near Ballina 
 
 
 
"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, 
but the one most responsive to change."  
Charles Darwin  
~ 222 ~ 
 
CHAPTER 8  AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL 
PRIORITY SCENARIO 
To balance future urban development with the protection of the regions 
natural environment and agricultural productivity the Agricultural and 
Environmental Priority scenario combined the constraints of the previous 
three scenarios.  As in the Agricultural Priority Scenario (Chapter 7), the 
growth of orchards was projected and given priority whilst the imposed 
constraints to development included; 
 Land recognised as being of high agricultural value (Chapter 7); 
 The current national parks estate inc.  world heritage areas 
(Chapter 6); 
 Riparian vegetation (Chapter 6); 
 Recognised key habitats and corridors (Chapter 6); 
 RAMSAR and other important wetlands (Chapter 6); 
 Land used by major roads (Chapter 5); and 
 Areas that have a slope greater than 25% (Chapter 5) 
8.1 BUILDABLE AREA 
The combination of these constraints reduced the buildable area to 
797,806 hectares (Figure 8.1), about half of the 1,628,330 hectares 
available using the minimal constraints scenarios.  The impact of applying 
~ 223 ~ 
 
these constraints on future development within the region is visually 
apparent when compared to the minimal constraints buildable area from 
Chapter 5 (reproduced as Figure 8.2 for comparison).   
~ 224 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.1: BUILDABLE AREA FOR AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PRIORITY 
SCENARIOS  
  
~ 225 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.2: MINIMAL CONSTRAINTS BUILDABLE AREA 
 
~ 226 ~ 
 
8.2 POPULATION 
The considerable reduction of buildable area combined with an 
increasing urban area per person significantly reduced the capacity for 
population growth in the north eastern zone (zone 4).  The potential area 
for new urban development in this area was reduced by these constraints 
to 422269 hectares which equated to 676296 25m x 25m cells. 
At the time of the study, zone  4 had a population of approximately 
144837 people who each utilised 1.03 urban cells  (149438 cells in total).  
Density trend calculations in Chapter 4 demonstrated that between 2001 
and 2031 a decrease in population density occurs for this zone reducing 
from 1.03 cells to 1.79 cells per person.  Hence the 2004 population alone 
encompassed 258452 urban cells.  This left 417844 cells of buildable area 
for future population growth and at a density of 1.79 cells per person the 
zone had a capacity to accommodate 461304 people.  As a large 
proportion of the population growth in the past ( 1985-2004) and used as 
trend in future scenarios was in this area, the allocation of either 727656 or 
955497 people to the entire region exceeded the maximum settlement 
population for this zone.   
  
~ 227 ~ 
 
8.2.1 CONTROLLED POPULATION DENSITY 
To overcome this problem, two solutions were designed.  The first was a 
controlled population density scenario whereby in a regional population 
of 955497 the number of people projected in zone 4 was divided by the 
number of available cells.  This accommodates the future population 
growth at the cost of a higher projected population density.  The result of 
this calculation was a change from a projected 1.79 cells per person to 
1.14 cells per person.   
For consistency this population density was then used for all four 
population levels and the new allocation of cells for future population 
growth of urban areas is shown in Table 8.1.   
  
~ 228 ~ 
 
TABLE 8.1: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY CONTROLLED DENSITY POPULATION 
PROJECTIONS 
Zone Current (2004) Population 403839 
 
Number 
of Urban 
Cells 
Number 
of 
People 
Number of 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Population 
Estimated 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Cells 
Required 
Number of 
Cells to be 
added 
1 3818 5705 0.67 6186 1.36 8387 4569 
2 20783 19677 1.06 23348 1.63 37973 17190 
3 36325 25742 1.41 31400 2.40 75391 39066 
4 149438 144387 1.03 246550 1.14 281067 131629 
5 45071 46833 0.96 60729 1.75 106533 61462 
6 35765 22114 1.62 35626 2.70 96282 60517 
Sum 
 
264458 
 
403839 
 
765215 314433 
 Zone Current (2004) Population 558911 
 
Number 
of Urban 
Cells 
Number 
of 
People 
Number of 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Population 
Estimated 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Cells 
Required 
Number of 
Cells to be 
added 
1 3818 5705 0.67 6199 1.36 8404 4586 
2 20783 19677 1.06 23945 1.63 38945 18162 
3 36325 25742 1.41 32612 2.40 78303 41978 
4 149438 144387 1.03 382186 1.14 435692 286254 
5 45071 46833 0.96 65065 1.75 114139 69068 
6 35765 22114 1.62 48902 2.70 132164 96399 
Sum 
 
264458 
 
558911 
 
1055021 516447 
 Zone Current (2004) Population 727657 
 
Number 
of Urban 
Cells 
Number 
of 
People 
Number of 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Population 
Estimated 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Cells 
Required 
Number of 
Cells to be 
added 
1 3818 5705 0.67 6288 1.36 8524 4706 
2 20783 19677 1.06 25316 1.63 41174 20391 
3 36325 25742 1.41 35074 2.40 84214 47889 
4 149438 144387 1.03 525599 1.14 599183 449745 
5 45071 46833 0.96 72028 1.75 126354 81283 
6 35765 22114 1.62 63351 2.70 171214 135449 
Sum 
 
264458 
 
727657 
 
1030663 739463 
 Zone Current (2004) Population 955497 
 
Number 
of Urban 
Cells 
Number 
of 
People 
Number of 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Population 
Estimated 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Cells 
Required 
Number of 
Cells to be 
added 
1 3818 5705 0.67 6378 1.36 8646 4828 
2 20783 19677 1.06 26765 1.63 43531 22748 
3 36325 25742 1.41 37722 2.40 90571 54246 
4 149438 144387 1.03 722826 1.14 824022 676296 
5 45071 46833 0.96 79736 1.75 139876 94805 
6 35765 22114 1.62 82069 2.70 221801 186036 
Sum 
 
264458 
 
955497 
 
1328448 1037248 
~ 229 ~ 
 
8.2.2 URBAN SHIFT  
The second method used to overcome the limitation of buildable area in 
zone 4 was a reallocation of excess population to other zones.  In this 
scenario design the projected population density of 1.79 for zone 4 was 
retained, however any population over the maximum of 461304 people 
was divided evenly between zones 5 (further inland) and zone 6 (coastal 
south).  This additional population added to each zone was allocated at 
the recipient zones urban density.   
Allocation of population and cells is shown in Table 8.2.  As the zone 4 
maximum was not reached until the regional population of 727657 
scenario, the projected urban area for the population levels of 403839 
and 558911 is the same as presented in previous chapters for these levels.  
At a total population of 727657, 64295 people are evenly distributed to 
zones 5 and 6 while at population 955497, 261523 people have settlement 
patterns reallocated to zones 5 and 6.   
  
~ 230 ~ 
 
TABLE 8.2: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY URBAN SHIFT POPULATION 
PROJECTIONS 
Zone Current (2004) Population 403839 
 
Number 
of Urban 
Cells 
Number 
of 
People 
Number 
of Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Population 
Estimated 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Cells 
Required 
Number 
of Cells to 
be added 
1 3818 5705 0.67 6186 1.36 8387 4569 
2 20783 19677 1.06 23348 1.63 37973 17190 
3 36325 25742 1.41 31400 2.40 75391 39066 
4 149438 144387 1.03 246550 1.79 440649 291211 
5 45071 46833 0.96 60729 1.75 106533 61462 
6 35765 22114 1.62 35626 2.70 96282 60517 
Sum 
 
264458 
 
403839 
 
765215 474015 
 Zone Current (2004) Population 558911 
 
Number 
of Urban 
Cells 
Number 
of 
People 
Number 
of Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Population 
Estimated 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Cells 
Required 
Number 
of Cells to 
be added 
1 3818 5705 0.67 6186 1.36 8387 4569 
2 20783 19677 1.06 23348 1.63 37973 17190 
3 36325 25742 1.41 31400 2.40 75391 39066 
4 149438 144387 1.03 246550 1.79 440649 291211 
5 45071 46833 0.96 60729 1.75 106533 61462 
6 35765 22114 1.62 35626 2.70 96282 60517 
Sum 
 
264458 
 
403839 
 
765215 474015 
 Zone Current (2004) Population 727657 
 
Number 
of Urban 
Cells 
Number 
of 
People 
Number 
of Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Population 
Estimated 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Cells 
Required 
Number 
of Cells to 
be added 
1 3818 5705 0.67 6288 1.36 8524 4706 
2 20783 19677 1.06 25316 1.63 41174 20391 
3 36325 25742 1.41 35074 2.40 84214 47889 
4 149438 144387 1.03 461304 1.79 825734 676296 
5 45071 46833 0.96 104175 1.75 182749 137678 
6 35765 22114 1.62 95499 2.70 258096 222331 
Sum 
 
264458 
 
727657 
 
1400491 1109291 
 Zone Current (2004) Population 955497 
 
Number 
of Urban 
Cells 
Number 
of 
People 
Number 
of Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Population 
Estimated 
Cells / 
Person 
Estimated 
Cells 
Required 
Number 
of Cells to 
be added 
1 3818 5705 0.67 6378 1.36 8646 4828 
2 20783 19677 1.06 26765 1.63 43531 22748 
3 36325 25742 1.41 37722 2.40 90571 54246 
4 149438 144387 1.03 461304 1.79 825734 676296 
5 45071 46833 0.96 210497 1.75 369263 324192 
6 35765 22114 1.62 212831 2.70 575198 539433 
Sum 
 
264458 
 
955497 
 
1912944 1621744 
~ 231 ~ 
 
Under these constraints, all available space for potential new urban 
development within zone 4 is converted to urban area for both variations 
of placement.  For the 955497 population level 676296 cells are 
reallocated as opposed to 1142440 cells for the same population in the 
minimal constraints scenarios. 
8.3 CONTROLLED DENSITY RESULTS 
As in previous scenarios the new projected urban areas for each 
population level were merged into the 2004 LULC and are shown with 
extracts for the Far North Coast in Figures 8.3 to 8.10 
Conversion to urban development within the inland areas was similar to 
previous scenarios with limited additional growth around the major 
population centres.  In the southern parts of the region, new urban 
development occurred predominately along the Pacific Highway in a 
manner and extent similar to the environmental priority scenarios.   
In the north east, the effect of increased population density and 
subsequent reduction in the number of cells converted to urban area is 
visually apparent (Figure 8.10).  As in the environmental priority scenario 
(Chapter 6) the spatial growth of the major coastal population centres 
was reduced and environmental constraints limited new development 
along the coastline.  This protected the coastal complex vegetation class 
and pushed development off the coastline by approximately 1-2 
~ 232 ~ 
 
kilometres.  The combined constraints reduced the impact on sugar cane 
fields and provided protection for agricultural priority areas.  With the 
growth of orchards there was a reduction in the conversion of pasture and 
cropland in the area between Lismore, Ballina and Byron Bay. 
The impact of these changes are shown in Table 8.3 
~ 233 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.3: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY CONTROLLED DENSITY LAND USE 
POPULATION 403839
~ 234 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.4: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY CONTROLLED DENSITY LAND USE 
POPULATION 403839, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION 
 
~ 235 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.5: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY CONTROLLED DENSITY LAND USE 
FIGURE POPULATION 558911 
~ 236 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.6: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY CONTROLLED DENSITY LAND USE 
FIGURE POPULATION 55891, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION 
 
~ 237 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.7: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY CONTROLLED DENSITY LAND USE 
FIGURE POPULATION 727657  
~ 238 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.8 AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY CONTROLLED DENSITY LAND USE 
FIGURE POPULATION 727657, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION 
 
~ 239 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.9: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY CONTROLLED DENSITY LAND USE 
FIGURE POPULATION 955497 
~ 240 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.10: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY CONTROLLED DENSITY LAND USE 
FIGURE POPULATION 955497, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION 
 
~ 241 ~ 
 
8.3.1 CHANGE TABLES 
 
TABLE 8.3: LAND USE CHANGE BY CLASS FOR AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PRIORITY CONTROLLED DENSITY SCENARIOS 
Land Use / 
Population 2004 Population 403839 Population 558911 Population 727657 Population 955497 
 
Total ha Total ha 
Change 
(ha) 
% 
Change Total ha 
Change 
(ha) 
% 
Change Total ha 
Change 
(ha) % Change Total ha 
Change 
(ha) % Change 
Coastal 
Complex 67563 66105 -1458 -2.16% 64929 -2633 -3.90% 64172 -3391 -5.02% 63473 -4090 -6.05% 
Forests 1205414 1197454 -7960 -0.66% 1193295 -12120 -1.01% 1187771 -17643 -1.46% 1178638 -26776 -2.22% 
Pasture/ 
Crops 713725 691985 -21741 -3.05% 685278 -28447 -3.99% 678204 -35521 -4.98% 670300 -43425 -6.08% 
Orchards 8730 21120 12391 141.94% 21120 12391 141.94% 21120 12391 141.94% 21120 12391 141.94% 
Sugar Cane 56069 55510 -559 -1.00% 54937 -1132 -2.02% 54381 -1688 -3.01% 53554 -2514 -4.48% 
Urban 20148 39514 19366 96.12% 52138 31990 258.78% 66070 45922 327.93% 84674 64527 420.27% 
 
 
 
~ 242 ~ 
 
Overall, the urban area increased by 420.27% in the population 955497 
scenario.  This is a comparable amount to the 727657 population level of 
the previous (lower density) scenarios (433.46%) and caused considerable 
conversions of land use elsewhere.   
At the population 955497 level, 2514 hectares of sugar cane was 
converted to urban area, however this was less than half of sugar 
production area lost in any other scenario.  The coastal complex and 
pasture / crops LULC classes also had the lower levels of conversion to 
urban area when compared to previous scenarios.  Forest areas 
amounting to 26776 hectares became urbanised which was higher than 
that of the minimal constraints and environmental priority scenarios, but 
less than observed in the agricultural priority scenario.  A breakdown of 
the effect on areas of native vegetation ecosystems is provided in Table 
8.4. 
 
 
~ 243 ~ 
 
TABLE 8.4: LAND USE CHANGE BY VEGETATION TYPE FOR AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PRIORITY CONTROLLED DENSITY SCENARIOS 
   
Population 403839 Population 558911 Population 727657 Population 955497 
ECOSYSTEM STATUS_A LULC 2004 Total (ha) 
Change 
(ha) 
% 
Change Total (ha) 
Change 
(ha) 
% 
Change Total (ha) 
Change 
(ha) 
% 
Change Total (ha) 
Change 
(ha) % Change 
unclassified   151111 148157 -2954 -1.96% 145750 -5361 -3.55% 143129 -7982 -5.28% 139566 -11545 -7.64% 
Baileys Stringybark   31076 30874 -203 -0.65% 30720 -357 -1.15% 30553 -523 -1.68% 30345 -732 -2.35% 
Banksia Rare 1336 1284 -53 -3.93% 1207 -129 -9.68% 1178 -159 -11.87% 1158 -178 -13.31% 
Casuarina Woodland Rare 21 21 0 -0.89% 21 0 -0.89% 21 0 -0.89% 21 0 -0.89% 
Central Mid Elevation Sydney 
Blue Gum   3278 3277 -1 -0.03% 3277 -1 -0.03% 3277 -1 -0.03% 3277 -1 -0.03% 
Clarence Lowland Needlebark 
Stringybark   10322 10254 -68 -0.66% 10183 -139 -1.35% 10102 -219 -2.13% 10005 -317 -3.07% 
Lowlands Grey Box Vulnerable 14455 14429 -25 -0.18% 14423 -31 -0.22% 14413 -42 -0.29% 14404 -51 -0.35% 
Coast Cypress Pine Rare 67 63 -4 -5.63% 63 -4 -5.63% 63 -4 -5.63% 63 -4 -5.63% 
Coast Range Bloodwood-
Mahogany   5177 5157 -20 -0.38% 5142 -35 -0.67% 5119 -58 -1.12% 5075 -102 -1.96% 
Clarence Lowlands Spotted 
Gum   128339 127997 -342 -0.27% 127802 -537 -0.42% 127508 -831 -0.65% 126950 -1389 -1.08% 
Coast Range Spotted Gum-
Blackbutt Rare 625 625 0 0.00% 625 0 0.00% 625 0 -0.05% 613 -12 -1.99% 
Coastal Flooded Gum   8039 8039 0 0.00% 8038 0 0.00% 8032 -6 -0.08% 7981 -57 -0.71% 
Coastal Sands Blackbutt   2821 2804 -17 -0.59% 2801 -20 -0.71% 2795 -26 -0.91% 2792 -29 -1.03% 
Dry Foothills Blackbutt-
Turpentine   2704 2693 -11 -0.42% 2683 -20 -0.76% 2677 -27 -0.99% 2659 -45 -1.66% 
Dry Foothills Spotted Gum   73800 73796 -3 0.00% 73791 -9 -0.01% 73784 -15 -0.02% 73766 -34 -0.05% 
Dry Grassy Blackbutt-   5353 5321 -32 -0.59% 5289 -63 -1.19% 5258 -94 -1.76% 5221 -131 -2.45% 
~ 244 ~ 
 
Tallowwood 
Dry Grassy Tallowwood-Grey 
Gum   2167 2135 -33 -1.50% 2114 -54 -2.47% 2088 -79 -3.66% 2059 -108 -5.00% 
Dry Heathy Blackbutt-
Bloodwood   42039 41734 -305 -0.72% 41506 -533 -1.27% 41229 -810 -1.93% 40845 -1194 -2.84% 
Dry Heathy Sandstone 
Blackbutt   16634 16572 -62 -0.38% 16521 -113 -0.68% 16471 -163 -0.98% 16404 -230 -1.38% 
Dry open Redgum-Broad 
Leaved Apple   1129 1129 0 0.00% 1129 0 0.00% 1129 0 0.00% 1129 0 0.00% 
Dunns White Gum Rare 291 291 0 0.00% 291 0 0.00% 291 0 0.00% 291 0 0.00% 
Eastern Red Gums Vulnerable 1774 1774 0 0.00% 1774 0 0.00% 1774 0 0.00% 1774 0 0.00% 
Escarpment Redgum   15211 15208 -3 -0.02% 15207 -3 -0.02% 15205 -5 -0.04% 15201 -10 -0.06% 
Escarpment Scribbly Gum-
Apple   3583 3581 -2 -0.07% 3580 -3 -0.08% 3579 -4 -0.12% 3579 -4 -0.12% 
Wet Bangalow-Brushbox Vulnerable 8312 8296 -16 -0.19% 8253 -58 -0.70% 8150 -162 -1.95% 7944 -368 -4.43% 
Foothill Grey Gum-Ironbark-
Spotted Gum   39837 39695 -141 -0.35% 39564 -273 -0.68% 39403 -434 -1.09% 39188 -649 -1.63% 
Foothills Grey Gum-Spotted 
Gum   5947 5922 -26 -0.43% 5899 -48 -0.81% 5860 -87 -1.47% 5805 -142 -2.39% 
Gorge Grey Gum   697 697 0 0.00% 697 0 0.00% 697 0 0.00% 697 0 -0.05% 
Gorge Ironbark-Grey Gum   22685 22684 -1 0.00% 22682 -3 -0.01% 22680 -5 -0.02% 22671 -14 -0.06% 
Heath Vulnerable 8138 8051 -88 -1.08% 7968 -171 -2.10% 7903 -236 -2.90% 7862 -276 -3.39% 
Heathy Scribbly Gum   7235 7197 -37 -0.51% 7157 -77 -1.07% 7096 -138 -1.91% 7022 -213 -2.94% 
Herbfield and Fjaeldmark Rare 25 25 0 0.00% 25 0 0.00% 25 0 0.00% 25 0 0.00% 
High Elevation Open Spotted 
Gum   42550 42536 -15 -0.03% 42527 -23 -0.05% 42517 -34 -0.08% 42504 -46 -0.11% 
Ironbark   5467 5451 -16 -0.29% 5447 -19 -0.36% 5442 -24 -0.44% 5436 -31 -0.56% 
~ 245 ~ 
 
Low Relief Coastal Blackbutt Rare 310 310 0 0.00% 310 0 0.00% 310 0 0.00% 310 0 0.00% 
Lowland Red Gum   43876 43629 -247 -0.56% 43413 -463 -1.05% 43065 -811 -1.85% 42696 -1180 -2.69% 
Lowlands Scribbly Gum Vulnerable 3204 3181 -23 -0.70% 3164 -39 -1.22% 3135 -69 -2.14% 3048 -155 -4.84% 
Lowlands Spotted Gum-Box   15578 15565 -13 -0.08% 15556 -21 -0.14% 15552 -26 -0.16% 15542 -36 -0.23% 
Coastal Mallee Vulnerable 1240 1232 -8 -0.68% 1223 -18 -1.42% 1218 -22 -1.78% 1217 -24 -1.91% 
Mangrove Rare 395 394 -1 -0.24% 394 -1 -0.33% 394 -1 -0.33% 394 -1 -0.33% 
Moist Foothills Spotted Gum   30780 30775 -5 -0.02% 30771 -9 -0.03% 30766 -14 -0.05% 30758 -22 -0.07% 
Northern Moist Blackbutt   8700 8691 -8 -0.10% 8655 -45 -0.52% 8591 -109 -1.25% 8221 -478 -5.50% 
Natural Grassland Rare 270 270 0 -0.02% 270 0 -0.07% 270 0 -0.07% 270 0 -0.12% 
Needlebark Stringybark-Large 
Fruited Blackbutt   9547 9464 -83 -0.87% 9401 -146 -1.53% 9317 -231 -2.42% 9210 -337 -3.53% 
New England Stringybark-
Blakelys Red Gum   1067 1067 0 0.00% 1067 0 0.00% 1067 0 0.00% 1067 0 0.00% 
Northern Grassy Sydney Blue 
Gum Vulnerable 2856 2856 0 0.00% 2856 0 0.00% 2856 0 0.00% 2856 0 -0.02% 
Northern Open Grassy 
Blackbutt   18876 18773 -103 -0.55% 18675 -201 -1.06% 18522 -354 -1.88% 18218 -658 -3.49% 
Northern Ranges Dry 
Tallowwood   19608 19604 -5 -0.02% 19599 -9 -0.05% 19586 -22 -0.11% 19519 -90 -0.46% 
Northern Wet Brushbox   10532 10532 -1 0.00% 10531 -1 -0.01% 10531 -1 -0.01% 10521 -12 -0.11% 
Northern Wet Tallowwood-
Blue Gum   14647 14646 0 0.00% 14646 0 0.00% 14645 -1 -0.01% 14641 -5 -0.04% 
Open Coastal Brushbox   3440 3427 -14 -0.40% 3404 -36 -1.05% 3384 -56 -1.63% 3345 -95 -2.76% 
Open Shrubby Brushbox-
Tallowwood   9663 9662 -1 -0.01% 9662 -1 -0.01% 9662 -1 -0.01% 9662 -1 -0.01% 
Paperbark Vulnerable 22405 22305 -100 -0.45% 22128 -277 -1.24% 21936 -469 -2.09% 21753 -652 -2.91% 
~ 246 ~ 
 
Red Bloodwood Rare 207 207 0 0.00% 207 0 0.00% 207 0 0.00% 207 0 0.00% 
Red Mahogany   1251 1248 -2 -0.18% 1248 -2 -0.19% 1248 -2 -0.19% 1248 -2 -0.19% 
Richmond Range Spotted 
Gum   16415 16406 -9 -0.05% 16405 -10 -0.06% 16403 -12 -0.07% 16393 -22 -0.13% 
Richmond Range Spotted 
Gum-Box   17197 17196 -1 -0.01% 17195 -2 -0.01% 17195 -2 -0.01% 17195 -2 -0.01% 
River Oak Vulnerable 824 824 0 -0.05% 822 -2 -0.24% 821 -3 -0.42% 820 -4 -0.49% 
Rough-barked Apples Vulnerable 1396 1396 -1 -0.05% 1395 -1 -0.09% 1393 -3 -0.20% 1392 -5 -0.34% 
Saltbush Rare 9 9 0 -3.97% 9 -1 -7.95% 8 -2 -15.89% 8 -2 -15.89% 
Sandstone Spotted Gum-
Blackbutt   3870 3858 -11 -0.29% 3851 -19 -0.49% 3844 -26 -0.67% 3834 -36 -0.92% 
Sherwood Needlebark 
Stringybark   8249 8201 -48 -0.58% 8167 -82 -0.99% 8128 -121 -1.46% 8053 -196 -2.37% 
South Coast Tallowwood-Blue 
Gum   2569 2567 -2 -0.06% 2565 -4 -0.16% 2563 -6 -0.23% 2551 -18 -0.68% 
Stringybark-Apple   5044 5043 -1 -0.02% 5043 -1 -0.02% 5043 -1 -0.02% 5043 -1 -0.02% 
Swamp Endangered 11569 11423 -146 -1.26% 11278 -292 -2.52% 11243 -326 -2.82% 11188 -382 -3.30% 
Swamp Mahogany Rare 351 350 -1 -0.25% 350 -1 -0.27% 350 -1 -0.27% 350 -1 -0.29% 
Swamp Oak Rare 1946 1928 -18 -0.94% 1905 -41 -2.09% 1897 -49 -2.50% 1892 -54 -2.79% 
Sydney Peppermint-
Stringybark Rare 205 203 -2 -0.92% 203 -2 -0.92% 203 -2 -0.92% 200 -4 -2.14% 
Tallowwood   3563 3563 0 0.00% 3563 0 0.00% 3563 0 0.00% 3561 -2 -0.05% 
Turpentine   2470 2448 -23 -0.91% 2397 -73 -2.94% 2310 -160 -6.47% 2169 -301 -12.18% 
Very Wet New England 
Blackbutt-Tallowwood   434 434 0 0.00% 434 0 0.00% 434 0 0.00% 433 -1 -0.23% 
Wattle   783 774 -10 -1.22% 765 -18 -2.33% 742 -41 -5.24% 700 -83 -10.57% 
~ 247 ~ 
 
Wet Bloodwood-Tallowwood   25677 25651 -26 -0.10% 25574 -102 -0.40% 25454 -223 -0.87% 25115 -562 -2.19% 
Wet Coastal Tallowwood-
Brushbox   1526 1511 -16 -1.02% 1498 -29 -1.88% 1483 -44 -2.85% 1465 -61 -4.02% 
Wet Flooded Gum-
Tallowwood   5399 5367 -32 -0.59% 5294 -105 -1.94% 5160 -238 -4.42% 4872 -526 -9.75% 
Wet Foothills Blackbutt-
Turpentine   1014 1014 0 0.00% 1014 0 0.00% 1014 0 -0.02% 1012 -2 -0.20% 
Yellow Box-Blakely's Red Gum Vulnerable 38 38 0 0.00% 38 0 0.00% 38 0 0.00% 37 -1 -1.99% 
Forestry Plantations   10325 10315 -10 -0.09% 10310 -15 -0.14% 10310 -15 -0.14% 10310 -15 -0.14% 
Improved Pasture and 
Cropland   507 507 -1 -0.14% 507 -1 -0.14% 507 -1 -0.14% 507 -1 -0.14% 
Introduced Scrub   989 989 0 0.00% 989 0 0.00% 984 -5 -0.49% 968 -21 -2.12% 
Rainforest Endangered 111641 111549 -92 -0.08% 111383 -258 -0.23% 111088 -553 -0.50% 110459 -1182 -1.06% 
Scrub Vulnerable 4202 4175 -27 -0.65% 4137 -65 -1.55% 4120 -82 -1.96% 4077 -125 -2.98% 
Cleared-Partially Cleared   3118 3115 -3 -0.10% 3115 -3 -0.10% 3115 -4 -0.12% 3108 -10 -0.32% 
Camphor Laurel   6159 5984 -175 -2.84% 5699 -460 -7.47% 5376 -783 -12.71% 4723 -1436 -23.31% 
 
 
~ 248 ~ 
 
The effects of urbanisation upon the vegetation within the region was 
similar to the environmental priority scenario in both quantity and 
distribution.  The class most affected was Camphor laurel which had 1436 
hectares converted to urban development.  Clarence lowlands spotted 
gum (1389 hectares) and dry heathy blackbutt-bloodwood (1194 
hectares) had the next greatest area urbanised.  In proportion to the 2004 
extent, saltbush (15.89%), banksia (13.31%) and turpentine forests (12.18%) 
were the most affected with the former two classes being classified as 
rare. 
Overall 3473 hectares of endangered, rare and vulnerable 
vegetation,including 652 hectares of paperbark forest, was lost to new 
urban growth.  This was the smallest loss of these conservation important 
classes of all scenarios.  The combination of environmental and 
agricultural constraints, and reduced urban area (increased settlement 
density) appeared to be a potentially valuable and plausible alternative 
landscape futures design. 
  
~ 249 ~ 
 
8.4 URBAN SHIFT RESULTS 
The urban shift model applied to this scenario shifts population growth to 
other adjacent zones rather than increasing population settlement 
density.  The changes predicted for new settlement urban areas which 
were compared then merged with the 2004 LULC and Far North Coast 
maps are presented in Figures 8.11 to 8.18. 
In the urban shift scenarios, the north eastern coastal zone (zone 4) 
demonstrated all of its buildable area converted to urban development 
(at the highest population levels).  Reallocation of population to the west 
(zone 5) caused increased growth around Lismore and some small towns 
such as Nimbin.  A large number of small urban settlements developed to 
the south of the sugar cane belt below Ballina and Lismore. 
In the southern part of the region development along the Pacific Highway 
resulted in the development of larger urban areas along its length.  Many 
of these are comparable to the 2004 area of Grafton and were created 
by the placement algorithm because of environmental constraints 
protecting the coastal areas of this zone. 
The changes in land use areas are tabulated in Table 8.5 
 
~ 250 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.11: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY URBAN SHIFT LAND USE 
POPULATION 403839  
  
~ 251 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.12 AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY URBAN SHIFT LAND USE 
POPULATION 403839 403839, FAR NORTH COAST PORTION 
 
~ 252 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.13: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY URBAN SHIFT POPULATION 558911  
~ 253 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.14: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY URBAN SHIFT POPULATION 558911, 
FAR NORTH COAST PORTION 
 
~ 254 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.15: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY URBAN SHIFT POPULATION 727657 
~ 255 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.16: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY URBAN SHIFT POPULATION 727657, 
FAR NORTH COAST PORTION 
~ 256 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.17: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY URBAN SHIFT POPULATION 955497  
~ 257 ~ 
 
 
FIGURE 8.18: AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY URBAN SHIFT POPULATION 955497, 
FAR NORTH COAST PORTION 
 
~ 258 ~ 
 
8.4.1 CHANGE TABLES 
 
 
TABLE 8.5: LAND USE CHANGE BY CLASS FOR AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT PRIORITY URBAN SHIFT SCENARIOS 
Land Use / 
Population 2004 Population 403839 Population 558911 Population 727657 Population 955497 
 
Total ha Total ha 
Change 
(ha) 
% 
Change Total ha 
Change 
(ha) 
% 
Change Total ha 
Change 
(ha) % Change Total ha 
Change 
(ha) % Change 
Coastal 
Complex 67563 65092 -2470 -3.66% 64929 -2633 -3.90% 63326 -4237 -6.27% 62374 -5188 -7.68% 
Forests 1205414 1194747 -10668 -0.88% 1193295 -12120 -1.01% 1176337 -29078 -2.41% 1159062 -46352 -3.85% 
Pasture/ 
Crops 713725 686285 -27440 -3.84% 685278 -28447 -3.99% 668383 -45342 -6.35% 655279 -58447 -8.19% 
Orchards 8730 21120 12391 141.94% 21120 12391 141.94% 21120 12391 141.94% 21120 12391 141.94% 
Sugar Cane 56069 54956 -1113 -1.98% 54937 -1132 -2.02% 53448 -2620 -4.67% 52817 -3252 -5.80% 
Urban 20148 49488 29340 145.63% 52138 31990 258.78% 89182 69035 442.64% 121204 101056 601.58% 
 
 
 
~ 259 ~ 
 
Reallocation of new urban development into zones 5 and 6 increased the 
overall urban area for the region due to the south coast area (zone 6) 
having a lower population density.  At the population 955497 level, the 
extent of the zone 6 urban area is 1,010,56 hectares which is over 600% 
larger than the 2004 levels.   
Conversion of sugar cane production land to urban areas was 5.80%, 
which is less than all the previous scenarios except for the controlled 
density version of this agricultural and environmental priority scenario.  The 
area of coastal complex vegetation was reduced by 7.68%, which is 0.56% 
more than the environmental priority scenarios but less than half of the 
connected area in the minimal constraints and agricultural priority 
scenarios.   
However, 58447 hectares of pasture and cropland was urbanised, which 
was the greatest area lost for this class.  The large impact on this class was 
due to the new urban settlement areas around Lismore, to Casino and to 
small towns north of Lismore, such as Nimbin.  Similarly, the amount of 
forests converted to urban development (3.85%) was higher than previous 
scenarios, notably more than double the area lost in the minimal 
constraints scenario.  A large proportion of this change occurred as a 
result of development along the Pacific Highway and in southern parts of 
the region.  The LULC change on areas of native vegetation ecosystems is 
provided in Table 8.6. 
~ 260 ~ 
 
 TABLE 8.6: LAND USE CHANGE BY VEGETATION TYPE FOR URBAN SHIFT SCENARIOS 
   
Population 403839 Population 558911 Population 727657 Population 955497 
ECOSYSTEM STATUS_A LULC 2004 Total (ha) 
Change 
(ha) 
% 
Change Total (ha) 
Change 
(ha) 
% 
Change Total (ha) 
Change 
(ha) 
% 
Change Total (ha) 
Change 
(ha) % Change 
unclassified   151111 145937 -5174 -3.42% 145750 -5361 -3.55% 139088 -12023 -7.96% 136047 -15064 -9.97% 
Baileys Stringybark   31076 30874 -203 -0.65% 30720 -357 -1.15% 30202 -874 -2.81% 29031 -2045 -6.58% 
Banksia Rare 1336 1208 -128 -9.60% 1207 -129 -9.68% 1153 -184 -13.73% 1120 -217 -16.22% 
Casuarina Woodland Rare 21 21 0 -0.89% 21 0 -0.89% 21 0 -0.89% 21 0 -0.89% 
Central Mid Elevation Sydney 
Blue Gum   3278 3277 -1 -0.03% 3277 -1 -0.03% 3277 -1 -0.03% 3277 -1 -0.03% 
Clarence Lowland Needlebark 
Stringybark   10322 10254 -68 -0.66% 10183 -139 -1.35% 9948 -374 -3.63% 9276 -1045 -10.13% 
Lowlands Grey Box Vulnerable 14455 14429 -25 -0.17% 14423 -31 -0.22% 14392 -62 -0.43% 14322 -133 -0.92% 
Coast Cypress Pine Rare 67 63 -4 -5.63% 63 -4 -5.63% 63 -4 -5.63% 61 -6 -8.26% 
Coast Range Bloodwood-
Mahogany   5177 5155 -22 -0.42% 5142 -35 -0.67% 5047 -130 -2.52% 4861 -316 -6.10% 
Clarence Lowlands Spotted 
Gum   128339 127986 -353 -0.27% 127802 -537 -0.42% 126694 -1645 -1.28% 124689 -3650 -2.84% 
Coast Range Spotted Gum-
Blackbutt Rare 625 625 0 -0.05% 625 0 -0.04% 613 -12 -1.99% 588 -38 -6.04% 
Coastal Flooded Gum   8039 8039 0 0.00% 8039 0 0.00% 7980 -58 -0.73% 7977 -62 -0.77% 
Coastal Sands Blackbutt   2821 2804 -17 -0.60% 2801 -20 -0.71% 2791 -30 -1.06% 2782 -39 -1.38% 
Dry Foothills Blackbutt-
Turpentine   2704 2693 -11 -0.42% 2683 -20 -0.76% 2645 -59 -2.18% 2528 -176 -6.52% 
Dry Foothills Spotted Gum   73800 73796 -4 0.00% 73791 -9 -0.01% 73753 -47 -0.06% 73650 -150 -0.20% 
Dry Grassy Blackbutt-   5353 5321 -32 -0.59% 5289 -63 -1.19% 5191 -161 -3.01% 4966 -387 -7.22% 
~ 261 ~ 
 
Tallowwood 
Dry Grassy Tallowwood-Grey 
Gum   2167 2135 -33 -1.50% 2114 -54 -2.47% 2029 -139 -6.39% 1799 -369 -17.01% 
Dry Heathy Blackbutt-
Bloodwood   42039 41718 -321 -0.76% 41506 -533 -1.27% 40580 -1459 -3.47% 38657 -3381 -8.04% 
Dry Heathy Sandstone 
Blackbutt   16634 16572 -63 -0.38% 16521 -113 -0.68% 16341 -293 -1.76% 15940 -694 -4.17% 
Dry open Redgum-Broad 
Leaved Apple   1129 1129 0 0.00% 1129 0 0.00% 1129 0 0.00% 1129 0 0.00% 
Dunns White Gum Rare 291 291 0 0.00% 291 0 0.00% 291 0 0.00% 291 0 0.00% 
Eastern Red Gums Vulnerable 1774 1774 0 0.00% 1774 0 0.00% 1774 0 0.00% 1773 0 -0.01% 
Escarpment Redgum   15211 15208 -3 -0.02% 15207 -3 -0.02% 15198 -12 -0.08% 15173 -38 -0.25% 
Escarpment Scribbly Gum-
Apple   3583 3581 -2 -0.07% 3580 -3 -0.08% 3578 -5 -0.14% 3569 -15 -0.40% 
Wet Bangalow-Brushbox Vulnerable 8312 8252 -60 -0.72% 8253 -58 -0.70% 7934 -378 -4.54% 7910 -402 -4.83% 
Foothill Grey Gum-Ironbark-
Spotted Gum   39837 39692 -145 -0.36% 39564 -273 -0.68% 39055 -782 -1.96% 38126 -1711 -4.29% 
Foothills Grey Gum-Spotted 
Gum   5947 5922 -26 -0.44% 5899 -48 -0.81% 5782 -166 -2.78% 5501 -446 -7.50% 
Gorge Grey Gum   697 697 0 0.00% 697 0 0.00% 697 0 0.00% 692 -6 -0.80% 
Gorge Ironbark-Grey Gum   22685 22684 -1 0.00% 22682 -3 -0.01% 22671 -14 -0.06% 22663 -23 -0.10% 
Heath Vulnerable 8138 7975 -163 -2.00% 7968 -171 -2.10% 7851 -287 -3.52% 7795 -343 -4.22% 
Heathy Scribbly Gum   7235 7192 -43 -0.59% 7157 -77 -1.07% 6973 -262 -3.62% 6660 -575 -7.94% 
Herbfield and Fjaeldmark Rare 25 25 0 0.00% 25 0 0.00% 25 0 0.00% 25 0 0.00% 
High Elevation Open Spotted 
Gum   42550 42536 -15 -0.03% 42527 -23 -0.05% 42495 -55 -0.13% 42364 -186 -0.44% 
Ironbark   5467 5451 -16 -0.29% 5447 -19 -0.36% 5417 -49 -0.90% 5319 -147 -2.69% 
~ 262 ~ 
 
Low Relief Coastal Blackbutt Rare 310 310 0 0.00% 310 0 0.00% 310 0 0.00% 310 -1 -0.24% 
Lowland Red Gum   43876 43492 -384 -0.88% 43413 -463 -1.05% 42528 -1349 -3.07% 41356 -2520 -5.74% 
Lowlands Scribbly Gum Vulnerable 3204 3166 -37 -1.17% 3164 -39 -1.22% 3038 -165 -5.16% 2980 -224 -6.98% 
Lowlands Spotted Gum-Box   15578 15564 -14 -0.09% 15556 -21 -0.14% 15533 -45 -0.29% 15449 -129 -0.83% 
Coastal Mallee Vulnerable 1240 1224 -17 -1.36% 1223 -18 -1.42% 1217 -24 -1.91% 1216 -24 -1.94% 
Mangrove Rare 395 394 -1 -0.33% 394 -1 -0.33% 394 -1 -0.33% 394 -1 -0.33% 
Moist Foothills Spotted Gum   30780 30775 -5 -0.02% 30771 -9 -0.03% 30748 -32 -0.10% 30694 -86 -0.28% 
Northern Moist Blackbutt   8700 8654 -45 -0.52% 8655 -45 -0.52% 8209 -491 -5.64% 8188 -512 -5.88% 
Natural Grassland Rare 270 270 0 -0.02% 270 0 -0.07% 270 0 -0.12% 246 -24 -8.91% 
Needlebark Stringybark-Large 
Fruited Blackbutt   9547 9463 -85 -0.89% 9401 -146 -1.53% 9122 -426 -4.46% 8328 -1219 -12.77% 
New England Stringybark-
Blakelys Red Gum   1067 1067 0 0.00% 1067 0 0.00% 1067 0 0.00% 1067 0 0.00% 
Northern Grassy Sydney Blue 
Gum Vulnerable 2856 2856 0 0.00% 2856 0 0.00% 2856 0 -0.02% 2856 0 -0.02% 
Northern Open Grassy 
Blackbutt   18876 18751 -125 -0.66% 18675 -201 -1.06% 18100 -776 -4.11% 17209 -1667 -8.83% 
Northern Ranges Dry 
Tallowwood   19608 19600 -9 -0.04% 19599 -9 -0.05% 19518 -91 -0.46% 19495 -113 -0.58% 
Northern Wet Brushbox   10532 10532 -1 0.00% 10531 -1 -0.01% 10521 -12 -0.11% 10520 -12 -0.11% 
Northern Wet Tallowwood-
Blue Gum   14647 14646 0 0.00% 14646 0 0.00% 14640 -7 -0.05% 14635 -11 -0.08% 
Open Coastal Brushbox   3440 3418 -22 -0.64% 3404 -36 -1.05% 3323 -118 -3.42% 3162 -278 -8.09% 
Open Shrubby Brushbox-
Tallowwood   9663 9662 -1 -0.01% 9662 -1 -0.01% 9662 -1 -0.01% 9659 -4 -0.04% 
Paperbark Vulnerable 22405 22174 -231 -1.03% 22128 -277 -1.24% 21708 -697 -3.11% 21194 -1210 -5.40% 
~ 263 ~ 
 
Red Bloodwood Rare 207 207 0 0.00% 207 0 0.00% 207 0 -0.15% 203 -4 -1.99% 
Red Mahogany   1251 1248 -2 -0.19% 1248 -2 -0.19% 1248 -3 -0.24% 1238 -13 -1.01% 
Richmond Range Spotted 
Gum   16415 16406 -9 -0.06% 16405 -10 -0.06% 16390 -25 -0.15% 16345 -70 -0.42% 
Richmond Range Spotted 
Gum-Box   17197 17195 -1 -0.01% 17195 -2 -0.01% 17193 -4 -0.02% 17192 -5 -0.03% 
River Oak Vulnerable 824 824 0 -0.05% 822 -2 -0.24% 819 -5 -0.61% 808 -16 -1.90% 
Rough-barked Apples Vulnerable 1396 1396 -1 -0.05% 1395 -1 -0.09% 1389 -8 -0.55% 1375 -21 -1.50% 
Saltbush Rare 9 9 0 -3.97% 9 -1 -7.95% 8 -2 -15.89% 8 -2 -15.89% 
Sandstone Spotted Gum-
Blackbutt   3870 3858 -12 -0.30% 3851 -19 -0.49% 3820 -49 -1.28% 3762 -108 -2.79% 
Sherwood Needlebark 
Stringybark   8249 8201 -48 -0.58% 8167 -82 -0.99% 7998 -251 -3.04% 7340 -908 -11.01% 
South Coast Tallowwood-Blue 
Gum   2569 2567 -2 -0.06% 2565 -4 -0.16% 2546 -23 -0.91% 2490 -79 -3.06% 
Stringybark-Apple   5044 5043 -1 -0.02% 5043 -1 -0.02% 5043 -1 -0.02% 5042 -2 -0.04% 
Swamp Endangered 11569 11285 -284 -2.46% 11278 -292 -2.52% 11168 -401 -3.47% 11021 -548 -4.74% 
Swamp Mahogany Rare 351 350 -1 -0.27% 350 -1 -0.27% 350 -1 -0.29% 350 -1 -0.29% 
Swamp Oak Rare 1946 1906 -40 -2.07% 1905 -41 -2.09% 1888 -58 -2.96% 1867 -79 -4.04% 
Sydney Peppermint-
Stringybark Rare 205 205 0 0.00% 205 0 0.00% 200 -4 -2.14% 200 -4 -2.14% 
Tallowwood   3563 3561 -2 -0.05% 3561 -2 -0.05% 3561 -2 -0.06% 3556 -7 -0.19% 
Turpentine   2470 2396 -74 -3.00% 2397 -73 -2.94% 2165 -305 -12.35% 2152 -318 -12.87% 
Very Wet New England 
Blackbutt-Tallowwood   434 434 0 0.00% 434 0 0.00% 433 -1 -0.23% 433 -1 -0.23% 
Wattle   783 769 -14 -1.84% 765 -18 -2.33% 695 -88 -11.21% 664 -119 -15.21% 
~ 264 ~ 
 
Wet Bloodwood-Tallowwood   25677 25573 -103 -0.40% 25574 -102 -0.40% 25104 -573 -2.23% 25037 -639 -2.49% 
Wet Coastal Tallowwood-
Brushbox   1526 1511 -15 -1.01% 1498 -29 -1.88% 1451 -75 -4.92% 1358 -168 -11.00% 
Wet Flooded Gum-
Tallowwood   5399 5299 -100 -1.85% 5294 -105 -1.94% 4858 -541 -10.02% 4766 -633 -11.72% 
Wet Foothills Blackbutt-
Turpentine   1014 1014 0 0.00% 1014 0 0.00% 1011 -3 -0.30% 1001 -13 -1.29% 
Yellow Box-Blakely's Red Gum Vulnerable 38 38 0 0.00% 38 0 0.00% 37 -1 -1.99% 37 -1 -1.99% 
Forestry Plantations   10325 10310 -15 -0.14% 10310 -15 -0.14% 10310 -15 -0.14% 10309 -16 -0.15% 
Improved Pasture and 
Cropland   507 507 -1 -0.14% 507 -1 -0.14% 507 -1 -0.14% 507 -1 -0.14% 
Introduced Scrub   989 730 -259 
-
26.15% 732 -258 
-
26.03% 967 -22 -2.20% 961 -28 -2.84% 
Rainforest Endangered 111641 111575 -66 -0.06% 111576 -65 -0.06% 110412 -1228 -1.10% 110202 -1439 -1.29% 
Scrub Vulnerable 4202 4202 0 0.00% 4202 0 0.00% 4077 -125 -2.98% 4073 -129 -3.07% 
Cleared-Partially Cleared   3118 3115 -3 -0.10% 3115 -3 -0.10% 3105 -13 -0.42% 3101 -17 -0.56% 
Camphor Laurel   6159 5693 -466 -7.56% 5699 -460 -7.47% 4701 -1458 -23.67% 4620 -1539 -24.99% 
 
 
~ 265 ~ 
 
Although this model created the greatest impact on the forest class, the 
distribution of the land use change was similar to the environmental 
constraints scenario and relatively evenly spread across vegetation 
classes.  Clarence lowlands spotted gum was the most affected 
vegetation type with 3650 hectares of its extent being converted to urban.  
Dry heathy blackbutt-bloodwood was reduced in area by some 13381 
hectares.   
Proportionally, 15.89% of saltbush area was urbanised and 16.22% of 
banksia classes.  Both of these vegetation types are classified as rare.  
Overall 4867 hectares of endangered, rare and vulnerable vegetation 
was converted to urban.   
  
~ 266 ~ 
 
8.5 SUMMARY 
Chapter 8 presented a combined agricultural land protection and 
environmental protection, alternative futures design with two scenario 
options to manage the historical trend of excessive population growth in 
the north east area corner.  The first option increased population 
settlement density, while the second option shifted population growth to 
plausible settlement areas to the west and south. 
These scenarios highlight the huge challenges  for the whole region in 
decision making to balance the ongoing protection of natural heritage 
and resources with exponential population growth in accordance with 
the stated preferences of communities (NRRS 2003). 
The alternative futures options presented demonstrated qualitatively and 
quantitatively the effects of maintaining a higher population density in 
high demand areas, and the effecs that promotion of other locations for 
human settlements could have for the region.  Although the reallocation 
of urban growth resulted in a greater overall urban area and increased 
loss of forests, examination of the change tables derived from these 
models suggests that both solutions provided a relatively balanced mix of 
resource use and land allocation in comparison to other scenarios.   
In particular, the redistribution of urban development from the north coast 
into the southern and more inland areas would provide a number of 
~ 267 ~ 
 
social, economic and institutional benefits for many of the towns within the 
region.  The encouragement of this population shift would also provide 
greater protection for resources and the environment in coastal areas. 
Given the amenity and environmental values of the beachside, coastal 
strip and the potential for additional vulnerability from likely sea-level rise a 
coastal protection priorty scenario is examined in Chapter 9.