Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control

Title
Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control
Publication Date
2020-02-07
Author(s)
Cope, Robert C
( author )
OrcID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2048-858X
Email: rcope4@une.edu.au
UNE Id une-id:rcope4
Ross, Joshua V
Type of document
Journal Article
Language
en
Entity Type
Publication
Publisher
Academic Press
Place of publication
United Kingdom
DOI
10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110079
UNE publication id
une:1959.11/50195
Abstract

In an outbreak of an emerging disease the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen may be largely unknown. A key determinant of ability to control the outbreak is the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset. We provide a method for identifying this relationship with high accuracy based on data from simulated household-stratified symptom-onset data. Further, this can be achieved with observations taken on only a few specific days, chosen optimally, within each household. The information provided by this method may inform decision making processes for outbreak response. An accurate and computationally-efficient heuristic for determining the optimal surveillance scheme is introduced. This heuristic provides a novel approach to optimal design for Bayesian model discrimination.

Link
Citation
Journal of Theoretical Biology, v.486, p. 1-7
ISSN
1095-8541
0022-5193
Pubmed ID
31734243
Start page
1
End page
7

Files:

NameSizeformatDescriptionLink