Improved yield forecasting of individual Sugarcane crops using an evolved remote sensing and Machine Learning approach

Title
Improved yield forecasting of individual Sugarcane crops using an evolved remote sensing and Machine Learning approach
Publication Date
2025-08-03
Author(s)
Rahman, Muhammad Moshiur
( author )
OrcID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6430-0588
Email: mrahma37@une.edu.au
UNE Id une-id:mrahma37
Robson, Andrew James
( author )
OrcID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5762-8980
Email: arobson7@une.edu.au
UNE Id une-id:arobson7
Abstract
copyright protected
Type of document
Conference Publication
Language
en
Entity Type
Publication
Publisher
IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium.
Place of publication
Australia
UNE publication id
une:1959.11/71236
Abstract

Building on close to two decades of remote sensing-based forecasting of sugarcane, this study explored a newly derived machine learning (ML) approach for sugarcane yield prediction at the block level. Time series (2014–2024) Landsat 7 (L7 ETM+) and Landsat 8 (L8 OLI) derived vegetation indices (VIs), along with historical yield and agronomic data (for each of the modelled blocks) were sourced from the Condong growing region of Australia. This data were used as inputs into three well-performing ML models: random forests (RF), support vector regression (SVR) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). RF was identified as the best-performing model for forecasting individual block yield achieving the mean absolute error (MAE) of 10.3 (T/Ha) and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 12.6 (T/Ha). This predictive model demonstrates higher accuracy compared to previous studies and provides valuable insights for harvest and forward selling planning in the sugarcane industry. Additionally, the model can be scaled to deliver block level predictions for all sugarcane blocks within a region or the entire industry.

Link
Citation
p. 1-5
Start page
1
End page
5
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

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