Forecasting field rice grain moisture content using Sentinel-2 and weather data

Title
Forecasting field rice grain moisture content using Sentinel-2 and weather data
Publication Date
2025-02
Author(s)
Brinkhoff, James
( author )
OrcID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0721-2458
Email: jbrinkho@une.edu.au
UNE Id une-id:jbrinkho
Dunn, Brian W
Dunn, Tina
Hart, Josh
Schultz, Alex
Type of document
Journal Article
Language
en
Entity Type
Publication
Publisher
Springer New York LLC
Place of publication
United States of America
DOI
10.1007/s11119-025-10228-2
UNE publication id
une:1959.11/64666
Abstract

Optimizing the timing of rice paddy drainage and harvest is crucial for maximizing yield and quality. These decisions are guided by rice grain moisture content (GMC), which is typically determined by destructive plant samples taken at point locations. Providing rice farmers with predictions of GMC will reduce the time burden of gathering, threshing and testing samples. Additionally, it will reduce errors due to samples being taken from unrepresentative areas of fields, and will facilitate advanced planning of end-of-season drain and harvest timing. This work demonstrates consistent relationships between rice GMC and indices derived from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, particularly those involving selected shortwave infrared and red edge bands (r=0.84, 1620 field samples, 3 years). A methodology was developed to allow forecasts of grain moisture past the latest image date to be provided, by fusing remote sensing and accumulated weather data as inputs to machine learning models. The moisture content predictions had root mean squared error between 1.6 and 2.6% and R2 of 0.7 with forecast horizons from 0 to 28 days. Time-series grain moisture dry-down predictions were summarized per field to find the optimal har-vest date (22% grain moisture), with an average RMSE around 6.5 days. The developed methodology was operationalized to provide rice growers with current and projected grain moisture, enabling data-driven decisions, ultimately enhancing operational efficiency and crop outcomes.

Link
Citation
Precision Agriculture, 26(1), p. 1-22
ISSN
1573-1618
1385-2256
Start page
1
End page
22
Rights
Attribution 4.0 International

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